Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 28.968680 34.485236 40.540533 47.650633 55.739407 64.623779 75.087503
2025-02-09 21.217353 28.615472 37.541657 48.970417 63.069351 79.742177 100.785418
2025-02-16 16.699117 24.851111 35.431029 49.877748 68.768047 92.286615 123.394903
2025-02-23 13.317172 21.640496 33.156253 49.767074 72.561807 102.150020 142.771454
2025-03-02 10.576639 18.694337 30.620623 48.708436 74.625140 109.518151 158.984769
2025-03-09 8.714460 16.654064 28.976340 48.519898 77.599266 117.999089 176.849993
2025-03-16 6.695745 13.943100 25.877582 45.721554 76.423955 120.464536 186.394648
2025-03-23 5.886132 13.121699 25.601104 47.114309 81.390612 131.735984 208.626112
2025-03-30 4.855892 11.686322 24.085569 46.314792 82.859490 137.894102 223.718061
2025-04-06 4.464798 11.402521 24.498906 48.679143 89.364522 151.765318 250.560925
2025-04-13 3.418106 9.551226 21.823823 45.479879 86.637101 151.427500 256.222549
2025-04-20 3.017293 9.008288 21.512794 46.363543 90.622140 161.560239 277.990683
2025-04-27 2.794158 8.897380 22.162025 49.295262 98.685191 179.176862 313.075604
2025-05-04 2.443050 8.404489 21.994792 50.741788 104.395853 193.507004 344.009926
2025-05-11 2.104847 7.848495 21.598529 51.680933 109.240472 206.632458 373.573127
2025-05-18 1.750195 7.135503 20.731592 51.567339 112.132711 216.616308 398.474919
2025-05-25 1.402030 6.317040 19.470191 50.477723 113.092054 223.326808 418.272959
2025-06-01 1.160818 5.745309 18.688609 50.283653 115.674977 232.873663 443.033849
2025-06-08 0.853985 4.806141 16.789556 47.402680 112.799080 232.698977 451.501955
2025-06-15 0.756907 4.611735 16.814075 48.836677 118.519321 247.965754 486.576727
2025-06-22 0.604869 4.118329 15.914742 48.013513 119.598887 254.902220 507.618453
2025-06-29 0.563106 4.094687 16.364026 50.447572 127.522378 274.623792 551.405666
2025-07-06 0.396299 3.371575 14.562526 47.153823 123.198464 271.520961 555.201304